As an aspiring full-time trader, I’ve been documenting my journey since January 2024, and this year, I began trading with real money. By the end of May 2025, my portfolio was up 20%, with Coinbase (COIN) being one of my standout positions.
In this post, I’ll break down the momentum-based trading strategy I used to enter COIN, analyze its current price action, and highlight why the $245 zone could be a key support level for potential entries.
This is not financial advice—just my personal analysis based on technical indicators and market structure. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
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My Trading Journey and Strategy Overview
Since April 2025, I’ve been trading live capital, focusing on a momentum strategy that avoids day trading. Instead, I target stocks with bullish market structures, buying at support levels and selling at resistance or when momentum fades. This approach suits my schedule, as I can’t monitor the markets all day. For COIN, I allocated 10% of my portfolio with a cost basis of $191, and as of May 2025, my position is up 28%.
My strategy relies on:
- High timeframe market structure (monthly and weekly charts)
- Ichimoku Cloud for trend confirmation
- Fibonacci levels to identify support and resistance
- Gann Square for market symmetry
- Simple moving averages for additional confluence
I also use a risk management approach, entering positions gradually (1-3% at a time) to avoid overexposure, as stocks rarely move in straight lines.
Why Coinbase? Analyzing the Market Structure
Coinbase caught my attention due to its bullish market structure on higher timeframes. On the monthly chart, COIN has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, a hallmark of an uptrend. For example, despite a dip in April 2025, the stock closed above the September 2024 low of $146.12, confirming a higher low and maintaining the bullish trend.
The Ichimoku Cloud further supports this outlook. On the monthly chart, COIN closed May 2025 above the conversion line ($246.17) and retested it in June, holding as support. On the weekly chart, the baseline ($241) acted as support after a backtest, reinforcing the $245-$246 zone as a potential entry point.
Key Technical Indicators Pointing to Support
Several indicators align to suggest the $245 zone is a strong support level for COIN:
Fibonacci Levels
Using Fibonacci retracement, I analyzed COIN on both log and linear scales:
- Weekly chart (recent high to low): The 0.702 level ($267-$270) acted as resistance in early June 2025, with COIN rejecting this zone. The 0.5 level ($245-$248) now serves as support after a backtest.
- Weekly chart (all-time high to low): The 0.786 level aligns at $245, a critical support zone where COIN has stabilized. Technical analysts view a sustained base at the 0.786 as a bullish signal.
- Linear scale: The 0.5 level ($246) and 0.618 level ($277) confirm $245 as support and $270-$277 as resistance.
These levels show confluence, indicating $245 is a robust support zone, while $270-$277 is a resistance area to watch for profit-taking.
Ichimoku Cloud
On the weekly chart, COIN’s price action around the baseline ($241) and conversion line ($246) shows bullish momentum. A bullish engulfing candle in April 2025, followed by backtests, provided entry points around $195 and $197. On the 4-hour chart, a bearish engulfing candle at $270 confirmed resistance, leading to a pullback to $245, where support held.
Gann Square
The Gann Square, drawn from the February 2025 low, highlights market symmetry. COIN’s price action has respected Gann angles, with the $245 zone aligning perfectly with a key angle in early June 2025. This adds another layer of confluence to the support level.
Moving Averages
The 50-week moving average ($229) provides a fallback support level if $245 fails. However, the current price action suggests $245 is holding firm, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci levels.
Entry and Exit Points for COIN
Based on my analysis, here’s how I approached COIN:
- Entries: I entered at $170s and $197, capitalizing on breakout-backtest patterns after bullish engulfing candles. The $245 zone, with its confluence of Fibonacci, Ichimoku, and Gann indicators, is another compelling entry point for new positions.
- Exits: The $270-$277 zone has proven to be a resistance area, as seen in June 2025 rejections. This is a logical area to take profits or scale out of positions, especially if bearish signals (e.g., bearish engulfing candles) emerge on lower timeframes.
For risk management, I avoid chasing breakouts, preferring to buy on backtests to confirmed support levels. If I had more capital to allocate, I’d consider adding to my COIN position around $245, given the strong technical setup.
Why This Strategy Works for Me
This momentum strategy has driven a 20% portfolio gain by May 2025, with successful trades in COIN, Tesla ($240s), Palantir, Hood ($47), and Bitcoin miners. By focusing on high-timeframe market structure and waiting for backtests, I minimize risk and avoid the stress of day trading. The confluence of indicators like Fibonacci, Ichimoku, and Gann provides confidence in my entries and exits, while gradual position sizing protects against sharp retracements.
What’s Next for Coinbase?
COIN’s current setup at $245 suggests it could hold as support through June 2025. If this level remains intact, the stock may build a base for a push toward $270 or higher by summer’s end. However, a break below $245 could see COIN test the 50-week moving average at $229 or the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. Monitoring price action on the 4-hour and weekly charts will be key to confirming the trend.
Learn More About My Trades
If you’re interested in reviewing my trading strategy or seeing the full list of trades from my 2025 Trading Challenge, visit our group on Skool here. I share detailed trade breakdowns, including charts and explanations, to help aspiring traders learn from my journey.
Disclaimer: This analysis is my personal opinion and not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
